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Emerging Supply Chain of Pork and the Opportunities for Small-Scale Raisers in Catbalogan City in the Philippines

SJA_38_4_1370-1380

Research Article

Emerging Supply Chain of Pork and the Opportunities for Small-Scale Raisers in Catbalogan City in the Philippines

Marcos E. Bollido1,2*, Renell Jay G. Villaluz1,2 and Ronald L. Orale1

1Graduate School, Samar State University; 2San Jorge Campus, Northwest Samar State University.

Abstract | The emerging supply chain of pork and its effects on small-scale raisers in Catbalogan City was examined using mixed methods. Supply and consumption were forecasted using Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) models. Pork prices increased by 22-50% in 2021 compared to 2010 data. Live-weight pig prices also increased by 9-39% for the same year in review. It was noted that 27% of the supply was locally produced, and 73% were imported from other regions. Locally sourced pig supply is pegged at 53%, and the rest (47%) are imported from various towns in Samar and other regions. The demand for pork and live pigs is 27% and 55% higher than the supply. The said gap can be filled in by local farmers/raisers with an overall market opportunity of 70,996 kilograms monthly.


Received | January 13, 2022; Accepted | May 16, 2022; Published | October 05, 2022

*Correspondence | Marcos E. Bollido, Northwest Samar State University/Graduate School, Samar State University, Samar State University Email: [email protected]

Citation | Bollido, M.E., R.J.G. Villaluz and R.L. Orale. 2022. Emerging Supply Chain of Pork and the Opportunities for Small-Scale Raisers in Catbalogan City in the Philippines. Sarhad Journal of Agriculture, 38(4): 1370-1380.

DOI | https://dx.doi.org/10.17582/journal.sja/2022/38.4.1370.1380

Keywords | ARIMA, Consumers, Pork, Retailers, Supply chain

Copyright: 2022 by the authors. Licensee ResearchersLinks Ltd, England, UK.

This article is an open access article distributed under the terms and conditions of the Creative Commons Attribution (CC BY) license (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/).



Introduction

Agriculturally-dependent provinces in Asia are among the poorest in the world. This is because the potential of the industry is not maximized. Many countries import agricultural products, including pork are sourced elsewhere and not produced locally. In the same way, the Philippines imports agricultural products like vegetables and livestock products, other products were imported from other provinces.

The overall swine inventory in the Philippines was expected to be 9.49 million heads. Backyard swine inventories fell by 7.0 percent, while commercial swine inventories rose by 1.9 percent. 70.6 percent of the total pig population was raised on private farms, with the remaining 29.4 percent coming from commercial farms. Western Visayas reported the highest total swine population of 1.15 million heads, followed by Central Visayas with 1.14 million heads and CALABARZON with 1.02 million heads. These three regions accounted for 34.9 percent of the total swine inventory in the country (PSA, 2021)

Catbalogan is the provincial capital of Samar in the Philippines, with 57 barangays. Its population reached 106,440 in 2020, of which 85-90% are pork eaters (PSA, 2020).

Pig farming in the backyard is extremely limited. In basic housing, many backyard families rear only one or two hogs. The feed comes mostly from crop residue, kitchen leftovers, and forage. For their hybrid pigs, some raisers used commercial concentrate feed (Pan and Kinsey, 2002). The study of Bollido et al. (2021) stated that the sustainability of such alternative livelihood options, the establishment of a source of feedstock for swine raising is a critical requirement in swine production and breeding.

Despite the presence of large-scale hog farms in some sections of the country, backyard hog farming still accounts for 83 percent of the overall hog population in rural areas. Backyard hog farming and other smallholder hog farmers thrive primarily to supplement their income and feed their families (Armenia et al., 2016).

When the market quotation is good, pig raisers can earn a profit from pig cultivation, and when the pig price is reduced, the quotation is negative; these behaviors amplify the price fluctuation (Kai, 2009).

The high prices of pork supplies in the Philippines can be addressed by rethinking food choices and alternatives, especially during the pandemic. Due to African Swine Fever-related causes, the hog population was dramatically reduced in 2020, resulting in a pork prohibition and market price spike, although for some organizations, the difficulty is distribution rather than a shortage (Endiape et al., 2021).

The potential of local pork production

Pigs are economically significant due to their contribution to human nourishment and function in agricultural production systems (Huong et al., 2009). Consumers are becoming more worried about their own health and the environment. When it comes to buying meat, price and quality are still the most important factors to consider. Still, consumers have added new demands to this list in recent years (Labrecque et al., 2015).

The vast majority of individuals stated they eat pork at least three times each week, with only a few saying they never do (Grannis and Thilmany, 2001). Up to the point of sale to the final consumer, there was a lot of price haggling. Payment was made on a consignment basis in many transactions between chain actors, particularly at the level of dealers and processors (Manipol et al., 2014).

Structure of marketing channels

Rodríguez et al. (2014) stated that wholesalers and retailers, including butchers are part of the marketing stage, and the direct contacts of the consumers. They are also aware the demands of the customers and their tasks is to produce a superior product based on the buyers’ preferences. Maples et al. (2019) showed that from the time the piglet is born until the flesh is sold as pork, hogs are frequently held by a single organization.

All small backyard swine operations are sole proprietorships in business and sell the majority of their goods locally. In their swine production activities, they all rely on family labor (Aspile et al., 2016). To ensure uniform distribution, the farm must implement control mechanisms. One alternative is to utilize scales in the pre-slaughter process to ensure a well-distributed truck loading process. Another key aspect that contributes to increased mortality and carcass damage is driver conduct while traveling (Reis et al., 2015).

The efficiency of marketing channels

Consumer and market orientation have been cited as essential variables in the meat industry’s successful future development. The major variables and attributes of a supply chain can be set to link the different stages in order to deliver the final pork products to consumers (Perez et al., 2009). Reckmann and Krieter (2015) reported that a whole-farm model forecasted all significant farm flows that could affect pig production’s long-term viability. It should include interactions and dependencies between different farm components.

This study was conducted to understand the market and discover opportunities for local hog raisers. It specifically aimed at analyzing the supply chains’ price transmission and comparing the impact of marketing institutions on the economics of primary production. It also determined how the growing demand for pork, considered a specialty product among consumers, affects newly emerging supply chains of small-scale farmers in the areas. A dynamic system model was also developed as a tool for pig raisers/growers in visualizing and forecasting the movement of the entire production chain.

Materials and Methods

Data collection

This research study dealt with both qualitative and quantitative approaches, a purposive data gathering through online and face-to-face interviews of pork whole sealers and retailers as respondents. The target interviewee was ten meat shop owners and 28 individual pork sellers. Respondents in the supply chain were chosen randomly from a list of pork sellers based on the Department of Agriculture and the Philippine Statistics Authority list.

Respondents of the study were pig buyers, butchers, pork retailers and wholesalers, meat shop owners, and pork consumers. The research hasn’t included gathering data on processed pork, spoiled pork, and the cost of production of pigs. The study used operation research in modeling rather than using statistical analysis. The 2010-2022 data about pork consumption come from 28 villages selling live-weight pigs and ten meat shops. Follow-up interviews were also conducted to supplement the survey data gathered.

Modeling using ARIMA

Formulation of data using ARIMA modeling was used to analyze for the collected data to forecast the supply and demand of pork in Catbalogan City, Samar, Philippines. Mgaya (2019) stated that Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) models were used to forecast the production of livestock products. These models were used because it considers only one variable under each. The primary assumption of these models was that there is an aspect of past patterns in time series analysis, which continue to remain in the future. These models captured the patterns and used them to forecast future expected values observation.

An ‘auto.arima’ function of R-studio was used for the determination of the best ARIMA model (p, d, q) for each of the time-series data of the production and consumption of pork in Catbalogan City. The basis of ARIMA model selection is the Akaike information criterion (AIC) and Bayesian information criterion (BIC) values. The best-fitted model has the lowest criterion values, which can be calculated by:

and

Where;

L is the likelihood of the model, k is the number of parameters in the model, and N is the number of examples in the training dataset (Brownlee, 2019).

The autocorrelation function (ACF) and partial autocorrelation function (PACF) were plotted to check the significance of the model. Moreover, the Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) was calculated to assess the adequacy of the ARIMA model through the formula:

Where;

n is the sample size, ac is the actual value of the data, and fore is the forecasted value of the data.

Zhang and Wang (2020) showed the prediction model of pork supply via pig population calculation based on the pig population system was an excellent perspective to explore the forecasting of pork supply from the standpoint of modeling. This prediction model has apparent advantages over existing prediction models, which can only anticipate annual data. It can reflect the volatility in pig population and pork supply every month in the future.

Zhang and Wang (2021) specified that the pig population based on the prediction model has a greater prediction precision and its superior effect according to prediction accuracy. The pig population based on the population prediction model was the effective angle of the research on the prediction of the pig population number, according to the modeling viewpoint.

Results and Discussion

The emerging supply chain was presented in this section to show the gap in local production and consumption. Also discussed are the opportunities for local producers to address local consumption.

The supply chain of pigs

There were two pork suppliers in the City; the backyard raisers who were directly selling their pigs to the buyers/middlemen, then intermediaries sold pigs to the butchers who at the same time sold them to the retailers or directly to the consumers. The movement of supplies was from farm gate prizes to buyers and consumers (Figure 2). This buying and selling scheme had incurred lower marketing costs and eventually lower prizes at the consumer’s level. The study by Ajala and Adesehinwa (2008), found out that there will be a large number of buyers and sellers on the market.

 

 

Pig wholesaling and retailing were oligopolistic, with only a few companies controlling the majority of the market. There were fewer rural wholesalers than rural retailers, but there were more urban wholesalers.

Meat shops need a volume of pork supplies for an expected wide reach of customers from the City of Catbalogan and neighboring cities, municipalities, and villages (Figure 2). Meat shops bought a volume of pork from pig’s butchers and sold volumes of pork, usually directly to the consumers. In this chain, this incurred more or less high priced than the source from raisers and eventually has high retail prices. The marketing cost was high those meat shops acquired their pork supply import from other regions; thus, the price in the meat shops was higher than the price of pork from local produce.

According to Rodríguez et al. (2014) Farm owners and corporate groupings contribute to the Pork Supply Chain (PSC). The key agents were concentrates, biologics, semen, gilts, feed mills, pharmaceutical enterprises, and selection farms, which provided raw materials for pig products. Pharmaceutical companies specialize in the prevention, treatment, and control of pig illnesses. Breeders, piglets, and fatteners were the responsibility of the farm owners. Product laws, business permit operations, and pre and post mortem pork inspection were all handled by the licensing authority. The sale and distribution of pork from butchers, retailers, and wholesalers to the final customer and consumption is referred to as marketing. (Figure 3).

Abattoirs and cutting lines are the most important parts of the processing, as they are where the final fresh product is sent to the market. Waiting time before stunning, slaughtering, carcass sorting, and chilling are all part of the slaughtering process (Perez et al., 2009).

 

Table 1: Fitted ARIMA Models, and their selection criteria values (AIC & BIC) and estimates of parameters for time series data on production and consumption of pork (January 2020 to December 2026).

Parameters

ARIMA model

AIC

BIC

Estimate

Standard Error

P- Value

Pork Production

(0,2,1)

471.18

473.36

-0.9128

0.2091

0.3598

Pork Consumption

(0,2,1)

453.61

455.8

-0.9393

0.2363

0.5666

 

 

Sometimes carcass was sold whole, especially for foreign trade, but they were more commonly processed further by swine processors to obtain lucrative slices. Owners of animals may have their own abattoirs. Other times, pork processors own abattoirs and deal directly with retailers and butchers (Perez et al., 2009).

Modeling to foreseen production and consumption of pork (kg)

With a 95 percent confidence level, the ARIMA model performs admirably. To prepare non-stationary, non-normally distributed data for consumption, the method employs a number of statistical methods. Then, in order to conduct prediction and estimate the parameters of the ARIMA model (Alghamdi et al., 2019).

Figure 4, shows the actual pork production and consumption trend in Catbalogan City, Samar, the Philippines, from January 2020 to December 2021. Pork production relies on pork consumption. Both parameters have a peak value at the beginning and later the year since those months fall on the celebration of “Christmas and New Year’s Day,” which produced and consumed more pork.

As a result of ‘auto.arima’ in RStudio, parameters were presented in (Table 1) showing the best fitted ARIMA model for specific parameters, including the coefficients, Akaike information criteria (AIC), and Bayesian information criterion (BIC). The lowest BIC value serves as the basis for the ARIMA model selection of the best-fitted model.

Based on Table 1, the following models for the production and consumption of pork in Catbalogan City, Samar, Philippines, can be formulated, respectively.

Yt = 2Yt-1 – Yt-2 +εt – 0.9128εt-1 and

Yt = 2Yt-1 – Yt-2 +εt – 0.9393εt-1

 

Table 2: Forecast by the ARIMA model for Production and Consumption of Pork, CY 2022 (kg).

Month

Production

Consumption

MAPE (10.23%)

MAPE (2.69%)

Forecast (kg)

Prediction Interval (kg)

Forecast (kg)

Prediction Interval (kg)

95%

80%

95%

80%

Low

High

Low

High

Low

High

Low

High

January

85359

66288

104430

72889

97829

154912

142179

167645

146586

163237

February

87116

58915

115317

68677

105556

155974

137356

174592

143800

168147

March

88873

52815

124932

65296

112451

157036

133484

180588

141636

172435

April

90630

47225

134036

62249

119012

158098

130035

186160

139748

176447

May

92387

41868

142907

59354

125420

159159

126813

191506

138009

180310

June

94145

36609

151680

56524

131765

160221

123722

196720

136356

184087

July

95902

31374

160430

53709

138094

161283

120708

201859

134752

187814

August

97659

26116

169201

50880

144438

162345

117735

206955

133176

191514

September

99416

20808

178024

48017

150815

163407

114781

212033

131612

195202

October

101173

15429

186917

45108

157238

164469

111831

217106

130051

198887

November

102930

9966

95894

42144

163716

165531

108874

222187

128485

202577

December

104687

4409

204965

39119

170255

166593

105901

227285

126908

206277

 

Table 3: Forecast of by the ARIMA model for Production and Consumption of Pork, CY 2023 (kg).

Month

Production

Consumption

MAPE (10.23%)

MAPE (2.69%)

Forecast (kg)

Prediction Interval (kg)

Forecast (kg)

Prediction Interval (kg)

95%

80%

95%

80%

Low

High

Low

High

Low

High

Low

High

January

106444

36029

176860

-1247

14136

167654

102905

232404

125317

209992

February

108201

32870

183533

-7008

223411

168716

99883

237550

123709

213724

March

109958

29641

190276

12877

232794

169778

96830

242726

122080

217476

April

111715

26340

197091

-18856

242287

170840

93745

247935

120430

221250

May

113473

22866

203980

-24946

251891

171902

90623

253180

118757

225047

June

115230

19518

210941

-31149

261608

172964

87465

258463

117059

228868

July

116987

15997

217977

-37464

271438

174026

84268

263783

115336

232715

August

118431

12401

225086

-43893

281381

175088

81032

269143

113588

236587

September

120501

8732

232270

-50434

291436

176149

77755

274544

111813

240486

October

122258

4990

239526

-57088

301605

177211

74437

279986

110011

244412

November

124015

1174

246857

-63855

311885

178273

71077

285469

108182

248365

December

125772

-2715

254260

-70732

322277

179335

67676

290994

106325

252345

 

Table 2, 3, 4, 5 and 6 shows the forecasted values of ARIMA model (0,2,1) for production and consumption in 5 years. The value of Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) is 10.23% and 2.69% for the prediction of the production and consumption, respectively, indicating a “very good” prediction accuracy of the model for the consumption and “good” for the production.

Figure 6b showed that all lags in ACF and PACF plots for pork consumption in Catbalogan City, Samar, do not exceed the significant limits. However, as shown in Figure 6a, the aspect of pork production, lag 10 exceeded the significant limits. Still, it can be assumed as an error that can probably happen (Kumar et al., 2014; Nath et al., 2019) because lag 1 to 9 and lag 11 to 20 fall within the significant limits. Hence, the ACF and PACF plots proved that the chosen ARIMA model was best fitted for forecasting pork consumption and production.

 

Table 4: Forecast by the ARIMA model for Production and Consumption of Pork, CY 2024 (kg).

Month

Production

Consumption

MAPE (10.23%)

MAPE (2.69%)

Forecast (kg)

Prediction Interval (kg)

Forecast (kg)

Prediction Interval (kg)

95%

80%

95%

80%

Low

High

Low

High

Low

High

Low

High

January

127529

-6677

261735

-77721

332780

180397

64232

296562

104441

256353

February

129286

-10710

269283

-84820

343393

181459

60746

302171

102529

260388

March

131044

-14815

276902

-92028

354115

182521

57218

307824

100590

264452

April

132801

-18992

284593

-99345

364947

183583

53647

313518

98622

268543

May

134571

-23238

292354

-106770

375886

184644

50032

319256

96627

272662

June

136315

-27555

300184

-114302

386931

185706

46377

325036

94604

276809

July

138072

-31941

308084

-121940

398083

186768

42678

330858

92553

280984

August

139829

-36395

316053

-129683

409341

187830

38937

336723

90474

285186

September

141586

-40918

324090

-137530

420702

188892

35154

342630

88368

289416

October

143343

-45509

332195

-145481

432167

189954

31328

348579

86234

293673

November

145100

-50167

340367

-153534

443735

191016

27461

354570

84073

297958

December

146857

-54891

348605

-161690

455404

192078

23552

360603

81885

302271

 

Table 5: Forecast by the ARIMA model for Production and Consumption of Pork, CY 2025 (kg).

Month

Production

Consumption

MAPE (10.23%)

MAPE (2.69%)

Forecast (kg)

Prediction Interval (kg)

Forecast (kg)

Prediction Interval (kg)

95%

80%

95%

80%

Low

High

Low

High

Low

High

Low

High

January

148615

-59681

356910

-169946

467175

193139

19601

366678

79669

306610

February

150372

-64537

365280

-178302

479045

194201

15609

372794

77426

310977

March

152129

-69457

373714

-186758

491015

195263

11575

378951

75156

315370

April

153886

-74442

382214

-195312

503083

196325

7501

385149

72860

319077

May

155643

-79491

390777

-203963

515249

197387

3385

391388

70536

324238

June

157400

-84603

399403

-212712

527511

198449

-771

397668

68186

328711

July

159157

-89978

408092

-221556

539870

199511

-4967

403988

65810

332110

August

160914

-95015

416843

-230496

552324

200573

-9204

410349

63407

337738

September

162671

-100314

425657

-239530

564873

201634

-13480

416749

60979

342869

October

164428

-105675

434531

-248658

577515

202696

-17797

423189

58524

349290

November

166185

-111096

443467

-257880

590251

203758

-22153

429669

56043

351473

December

167942

-116578

452463

-267893

603078

204820

-26548

436188

53537

356103

 

Pig production economics

Under the influence of a high-grade pork supply chain, pork sales and total price are the highest. When buying pork, 74.8% of people tend to consider pork quality and pork brand, and they care less about the price. This data means that people have a high demand for high-grade pork in the pork consumer market, and a high-grade pork supply chain can improve the economy of the pork consumer market (Zhang and Wang, 2020).

The trend of pork and Live pig

In twelve years, prices of pork were fluctuated and increasing (Figure 7), in 2010 to 2011-22%, 2011 to 2012- 5%, 2012 to 2013- 4%, 2013 to 2014- 4%, 2014 to 2015- 12%, 2015 to 2016- 7%, 2016 to 2017- 7%, 2017 to 2018- 6%, 2018 to 2019- 13%, 2019 to 2020- 16% and 2020 to 2021- 50% respectively. Relatively, live weight pig prices increased from 2020 by 9% up to 39% in 2021. The production of pork and live pigs was affected by the African Swine Fever (ASF) and

 

Table 6: Forecast by the ARIMA model for Production and Consumption of Pork, CY 2026 (kg).

Month

Production

Consumption

MAPE (10.23%)

MAPE (2.69%)

Forecast

Prediction Interval

Forecast

Prediction Interval

95%

80%

95%

80%

Low

High

Low

High

Low

High

Low

High

January

169700

-122119

461518

-276599

615998

205882

-30982

442746

51005

360759

February

171457

-127720

470634

-286095

629008

206944

-35456

449343

48447

365440

March

173214

-133381

479808

-295682

642109

208006

-39968

455979

45865

370147

April

174971

-139099

489041

-305358

655300

209068

-44518

462653

43257

374878

May

176728

-144876

498332

-315123

668579

210129

-49107

469366

40624

379635

June

178485

-150711

507681

-324980

681947

211191

-53734

476116

37966

384416

July

180242

-156603

517088

-334918

695403

212253

-58398

482904

35284

389223

August

181999

-162552

526551

-344947

708946

213315

-63100

489731

32577

394053

September

183756

-168558

536071

-355062

722575

214377

-67840

496594

29845

398909

October

185513

-174620

545647

-365263

736290

215439

-72617

503495

27089

403788

November

187271

-180738

555279

-375550

750091

216501

-77431

510432

24309

408692

December

189028

-186911

564966

-385921

763976

217563

-82282

517407

21505

413620

 

 

the restricted mobility attributed to the Covid19 pandemic.

Pork and live pig consumption

Since 90%-95% of the populace of Catbalogan City and nearby towns were eaters of pork, there was an increase in consumption (Figure 8) of both pork and live pigs. The City of Catbalogan consumes 73% imported from other regions, while 27% was locally produced. Catbalogan City has 47% import from the other areas while 53% is produced locally in live pigs.

 

 

 

 

Pork & live pig supply and demand

The data showed (Figure 9) the demand for pork is 27% higher than the supply; this connotes that Catbalogan pig raisers have the opportunity to raise and produce more pigs/pork to satisfy the demand of the City. The need for live pigs is 55% higher than the supply, which is an additional opportunity for the local pig raisers to produce. The overall market opportunity for pigs for the local farmers/raisers in Catbalogan City is high. Estimates pegged it at 70,996 kilograms of pork monthly for Catbalogan City alone.

The data (Figure 10) provided has a mean of 58.96 heads per month with a standard deviation of 40.4. Around 42.9% say Catbalogan needs 40 to 80 heads per month. Two outliers said Catbalogan needs more than 120 heads per month. A follow-up interview reveals this is during peak months like December and August. For the holidays, December for the holidays, and August during Catbalogan Fiesta, where lechon (roasted whole pig) is mostly served during these celebrations.

Based on survey data, the City of Catbalogan needs between 2,620 to as high as 9,200 kg of pork per month (Figure 11). The behavior, however, seems to vary depending on the participants. A popular meat shop franchise in Catbalogan shares that they sell an average of 9,200 kg per month, while a smaller vendor says their sales average is 2,620 kg per month.

 

 

Conclusions and Recommendations

In this research study, we have reviewed pork and live weight pig population from a supply chain perspective and was forecasted the production and consumption in Catbalogan City, Samar, Philippines. The present supply chain of pork in the City was more from regional export and limited production from the local pig raisers. In the current situation, small-scale pig raisers were affected by the exportation of pork and live pigs in the City, which caused the increasing trend of prices of the products. However, export had also satisfied the demand of the customers.

Most pork and live pig supply in the City are sourced elsewhere, offering local producers a real opportunity. Backyard raisers, however, need to be helped to make their production operation more profitable. They are heavily affected by problems like ASF and other diseases; they have no direct access to veterinary help. Addressing the issues that local producers of pork or pigs eventually benefit them. Authorities, especially the Department of Agriculture, should look into account the support of the local raisers for pig production to meet the demand of consumers of Catbalogan City, Samar, Philippines. This intervention will ultimately help small hog raisers improve their socio-economic conditions, provide more affordable pork meat for the local population, and improve the local economy.

Acknowledgments

The authors would like to give my utmost thanks to the Bachelor of Science in Agriculture and Bachelor of Agricultural Technology students who were assisted in the gathering of data. Thank you for the support of Northwest Samar State University and the Graduate School-Samar State University.

Novelty Statement

Forecasting the supply and demand of pork using ARIMA was a vital part of this research, where pig raisers can now plan how much pigs/pork to produce in a year to address the demand for the product. This will ensure the income of the small-scale pig raisers since there is an assurance market for their produce.

Authors’ Contribution

Marcos E. Bollido: Data collection and processing, analysis of data, and writing the manuscript.

Engr. Renell Jay G. Villaluz: Data analysis using modeling tool (ARIMA).

Dr. Ronald L. Orale: Compilation of data, helped in drafting and technical analysis of data in the manuscript.

Conflict of interest

The authors have declared no conflict of interest.

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Sarhad Journal of Agriculture

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Vol.40, Iss. 3, Pages 680-1101

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