Major Crops Forecasting Area, Production and Yield Evidence from Agriculture Sector of Pakistan
Major Crops Forecasting Area, Production and Yield Evidence from Agriculture Sector of Pakistan
Dilshad Ahmad*, Muhammad Irfan Chani and Asad Afzal Humayon
ABSTRACT
Food security is a burning issue of current era, provision of nutrition requisites for increasing population unfeasible without sustainable agriculture growth. Forecasting plays an imperative role in adjusting the vision and applicability regarding aspirations. The study attempted to forecast major crops area, production, yield and per capita food availability using Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model. Sixty-seven years annual time series data from 1947-48 to 2013-14 was obtained to forecast major crops and per capita food availability for 21years from 2014-15 to 2034-2035. Findings of the study pointed out increasing trends; major crops area, production, and yield except the sugarcane crop as mentioned decreasing trend in sugarcane yield. Decreasing of sugarcane yield in forecasted period is reported to lack of potential use of resources in sugarcane crop. Forecasted Per capita food availability will increase wheat 138.2kg to 185 kg, rice 36.2kg to 50.8kg and maize 26.8kg to 43.5kg for forecasted population 188 million to 258.4 million from 2014 to 2035. Food security and sustainable agriculture growth are conceivable through proper and feasible policy measures by policymakers to revamp their strategies accordingly.
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