MAJOR FOOD CROPS PRODUCTION AND YIELD FORECAST IN PAKISTAN
Nouman Badar*, Hina Fatima**, Abdul Jabbar*** and Muhammad Asif*
ABSTRACT
This study focuses on forecasting the production and yield of food crops in Pakistan. Utilizing the “Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average” (ARIMA) model and data from 1948 to 2011. The data was obtained from Ministry of Food and Agriculture, Islamabad and various Economic Surveys of Pakistan. The result predicts that wheat (production and yield) forecast for 2029-30 to be -1 about 37188 thousand tons and 3454 kg ha , respectively. The rice (production -1 and yield) forecast for 2029-30 will be about 7176 thousand tons and 2630 kg ha , respectively. The maize (production and yield) forecast for 2029-30 will be about -1 5784 thousand tons and 6088 kg ha , respectively. In short, the production growth rate of wheat, rice and maize was higher in 2012.
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