FORECASTING AREA AND PRODUCTION OF BARLEY IN PUNJAB, PAKISTAN
Sobia Naheed*, Irum Raza*, M. Zubair Anwar*, Nusrat Habib*, Naheed Zahra* and Sabeen Siddiqui*
ABSTRACT
This study was designed to estimate barley area and production in Punjab based on time series data from 1976 to 2011. Four models namely quadratic trend, linear trend, exponential growth curve and double exponential smoothing were compared and the best fitting model was chosen by reason of three accuracy measures namely mean absolute deviation (MAD), mean absolute percentage error (MAPE), and mean squared deviation (MSD). The values of these
measures were lowest for the double exponential smoothing method, therefore, this method was selected for predicting barley production and area in Punjab from 2012 to 2016. Five years forecast for barley area in Punjab was 26.140,
25.360, 24.580, 23.800, 23.020 ha and forecast of barley production in Punjab was 24.620, 23.950, 23.270, 22.600 and 21.930 tonnes for 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015 and 2016, respectively, with a 95% prediction interval. Declining trends in
area and production of barley was observed from original series and this trend will be prevalent in the next five years after being forecasted. The estimates obtained from the results also depict inadequate supply of barley to meet up the everincreasing food necessities of the country.
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July 2015
Vol. 28, Iss. 3, 217-337
