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 Usman Shakoor*, Abdul Saboor*, Irfan Baig*, Anila Afzal** and Abdul Rahman***

 * Department of Economics and Agric. Economics, PMAS-Arid Agriculture University, Rawalpindi, Pakistan. ** Department of Sociology, PMAS-Arid Agriculture University Rawalpindi, Pakistan. *** Sustainable Development Policy Institute, Islamabad, Pakistan. Corresponding author:


 The climate variability has affected the agriculture production all over the globe. This concern has motivated important changes in the field of research during the last decade. Climate changes are believed to have declining effects towards crop production in Pakistan. This study carries an empirical investigation of the effects of climate change on rice crop of Pakistan by employing Vector Auto Regression (VAR) model. Annual seasonal data of the climatic variables from 1980 to 2013 has been used. Results confirmed that rising mean maximum temperature would lead to reduction in rice production while increase in mean minimum temperature would be advantageous towards rice production. Variation in mean minimum temperature brought about seven percent increase in rice productivity as shown by Variance Decomposition. Mean precipitation and mean temperature would increase rice production but simulations scenarios for 2030 confirmed that much increase in rainfall and mean temperature in long run will negatively affect rice production in future. It is therefore important to follow adequate policy action to safeguard crop productions from disastrous effects. Development of varieties resistant to high temperatures as well as droughts will definitely enhance resilience of rice crop in Pakistan. 


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Pakistan Journal of Agricultural Research


Vol. 34, Iss. 2, Pages 254-493


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