An Econometric Analysis of Horticulture and Economic Growth in Jammu and Kashmir
An Econometric Analysis of Horticulture and Economic Growth in Jammu and Kashmir
Arshad Bhat1*, Abid Sultan2, M. Latief3, Parvaiz Rashid3, H.A. Malik4 and Iqra Qureshi5
ABSTRACT
Over the past few decades, Jammu and Kashmir has emerged as one of India’s top states/UTs in terms of horticultural production. The current study aimed to investigate the short- and long-term relationships between economic growth and total horticultural production, taking into account the growing trend in horticultural production and individual products. The study made use of secondary data on horticultural production and gross state domestic product (GSDP) from 2004 to 2021. The Granger Causality Test, OLS, VECM model, and Johansen Cointegration Test were the econometric instruments employed. There is no significant short run relation between the variables, as shown by the Vector Error Correction model and its probability output, except for the case where horticulture production is considered an independent variable and GSDP as a dependent variable. The Johansen Cointegration Test results indicate that there is a long-term relationship between the variables. The Granger Casualty Test revealed that there was no cause-and-effect relationship (in either direction) between the three variables. The GSDP and horticulture production were the only variables for which the OLS showed a significant correlation. The study discovered a linear relationship between the dependent and independent variables of horticulture production and GSDP; however, the relationship failed the Granger Causality Test, indicating the absence of a cause-and-effect relationship. Given that agriculture is the backbone and cornerstone of the Jammu and Kashmir economy, the lack of a direct relationship between horticulture and food grain production or the GSDP is concerning.
To share on other social networks, click on any share button. What are these?
