TREND ANALYSIS AND FORECASTING OF WHEAT AND RICE IN PAKISTAN
Saqib Shakeel Abbasi*, Ayesha Tahir**, Irum Raza* Saleem Abid* and Muhammad Nisar Khan*
ABSTRACT
Wheat and rice are the basic requirement of every household. This paper analyses the price trends for these crops over the last 30 years and based on statistical models, forecast their prices from 2013 to 2017. Different models have been applied to get the best fit model. These were linear trend model, quadratic trend model, exponential growth model and S-curve model. The minimum values of Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE), Mean Absolute Deviation (MAD) and Mean Squared Deviation (MSD) have been acquired and then the forecasting was made for the best fitted model with minimum error. Five year average prices for the individual crop(s) were also calculated to observe the past trend. The study demonstrates that for wheat and rice (Basmati and IRRI); S-Curve model is recommended for forecasting price. The study presents an insight to national policy makers regarding the essential crops and provides them with a reference range of price in future so that they may be able to effectively deal with the increasing concern of food inflation in Pakistan.
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