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Potential Impact of Climate Change on the Distribution of the Pinewood Nematode Bursaphelenchus xylophilus in Chongqing, China

Potential Impact of Climate Change on the Distribution of the Pinewood Nematode Bursaphelenchus xylophilus in Chongqing, China

Hongqun Li1,*, Liganag Xing1, Xiaoli Liu2, Yonglan Pu3, Yuqing Yang3 and Yongyao Fu1

1School of Advanced Agriculture and Bioengineering, Yangtze Normal University, Chongqing 408100, P.R. China
2Library, Yangtze Normal University, Chongqing 408100, P.R. China
3Forest Protection Information Institute, Chongqing Academy of Forestry Science, Chongqing 400036, P.R. China
 
* Corresponding author: lihongqun2001@126.com

ABSTRACT

Pine wilt disease, caused by pine wood nematode, is one of the most dangerous biological hazards which leads to great economic losses and ecological damage in the invaded range. Here the geographical distribution of potential pine wilt disease was analyzed by using the Maxent model in the current and future conditions. Our results indicated that Maxent model provided satisfactory result with the AUC value of 0.871 and 0.841 for the model training and testing, respectively. The most significant factors were maximum temperature of hottest month, mean temperature of hottest quarter, altitude, annual mean temperature and minimum temperature of coldest month, with the thresholds 30.5~31.8°C, 27.5~28.7°C, ≤ 400 m, ≥ 17.5°C, and ≥ 2.3°C, respectively. Under the current conditions for the years 1950-2000, 9.22% of total areas, located in the central district of Chongqing, were identified as the suitable areas including increased three districts of Jiangbei, Dadukou and Jiulongpo for the nematode while 29.27% of the areas as the moderately suitable areas. During the periods of 2041-2060s and 2061-2080s, proportion of the optimum suitable areas in Chongqing were expected as 12.59%~15.44% and 12.10%~16.84%, with the proportion of moderately suitable areas as 23.00%~25.11% and 24.34%~25.00%, respectively. Altogether, the results shows that the optimum suitable areas will increase while moderately suitable ones decrease, however, the optimum and moderate ones almost not change between the 2050s and 2070s in the future. So forestry activities related to Pinus trees must be intensively controlled and “pine replacement project” may be implemented. Moreover, insect vector control actions should be conducted on suitable and moderate suitable habitats.

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Pakistan Journal of Zoology

June

Pakistan J. Zool., Vol. 56, Iss. 3, pp. 1001-1500

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