Estimating the Structural Shifts in the Demand for the Selected Food Groups in Pakistan
Estimating the Structural Shifts in the Demand for the Selected Food Groups in Pakistan
Mehreen Zaidullah and Hina Fatima
ABSTRACT
Pakistan is the fastest urbanizing country among all of the South Asian Countries and its rural population may equalize that of the urban till 2030. There are other changes as well like population growth and the wealth effects that have been observed in Pakistan. These changes can affect the consumption pattern of the people, and hence result in the food demand shifts. The current study estimates for the presence of structural shifts in the demand for food in Pakistan for the selected food groups from the Household Integrated Economic Survey for the years1985-86, 1993-94, 2001-02 and 2007-08. Quadratic Almost Ideal Demand System (QUAIDS) is employed to estimate the budget shares and test for these shifts. The results confirm for the significance of the quadratic variables in the model except for the Oils’ group. The presence of these shifts have been proved in Pakistan and hence there are other factors as well like urbanization that causing these shifts in food demand, apart from the changes in expenditures and the relative prices. Hence, agricultural import and export, and farm related policies should be made harmonious with the changing population statistics and pacing urbanization in Pakistan to make this transition period smooth.
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