COMPARISON OF TREND ANALYSIS AND DOUBLE EXPONENTIAL SMOOTHING METHODS FOR PRICE ESTIMATION OF MAJOR PULSES IN PAKISTAN
Saima Rani and Irum Raza*
ABSTRACT
The present study was designed to find out suitable forecasting method among the two forecasting methods namely trend analysis and double exponential smoothing. Measures of accuracy (MAPE, MAD and MSD) were used as the model selection criteria that could best describe the trend of prices of major pulses such as gram, mash, masoor and mung during 1975-76 and 2009-10. Double exponential smoothing method was found to be pertinent for price estimation of major pulses in Pakistan because of smaller values of accuracy measures. Six-year's forecasts of prices of gram, mash, masoor and mung in Pakistan in 2010-11 were Rs.31.80, Rs.84.09, Rs.72.06, and Rs.47.69 per kg respectively along with 95% prediction intervals. The results showed that if the present growth rates remain the same then prices of these pulses in Pakistan would be Rs.37.64, Rs.120.26, Rs.89.55 and Rs.55.03 per kg, respectively in 2015- 16. An increasing trend in the estimated prices will turn down the demand of these pulses and consequently poor class of the economy who do not have enough resources to buy expensive livestock-based protein-rich food will be badly affected.
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