Research Article

Climate Change and Agriculture: An Overview of Farmers Perception and Adaptations in Balambat Tehsil, District Dir Lower, Pakistan

Muhammad Jamal Nasir*, Anwar Saeed Khan and Said Alam

Department of Geography, University of Peshawar, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, Pakistan.

Received | February 24, 2017; Accepted | January 09, 2018; Published | February 10, 2018

*Correspondence | Muhammad Jamal Nasir, Assistant Professor, Department of Geography, University of Peshawar, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, Pakistan; Email: [email protected]

Citation | Nasir, M.J., A.S. Khan and Said Alam. 2018. Climate change and agriculture: an overview of farmers perception and adaptations in Balambat Tehsil, District Dir Lower, Pakistan. Sarhad Journal of Agriculture, 34(1): 85-92.

DOI | http://dx.doi.org/10.17582/journal.sja/2018/34.1.85.92

Keywords | Climate change, Farmers’ perceptions, Crop calendar, Adaptations to climate change

Introduction

In Pakistan the climate change research is mainly focused on biological and physical aspects of climate change. Recently a couple of researches carried out by IUCN in Gilgit Baltistan studied community perception to climate change. Most of the agrarian researchers agreed that change in the temperature and precipitation (high temperature and low precipitation) will lead change in the cropping pattern, land use and availability of water for irrigation. Fluctuation in these elements of weather and climate will adversely affect the agriculture productions (IUCN, 2008).

The vulnerability of agriculture to both climate change and variability of weather is well documented fact. Scientific community is agreed that variability in the elements of weather specifically temperature and precipitation will result a changing land use and cropping pattern. Besides the water deficiency will consequently reduce agriculture productivity and vulnerable areas are expected to experience a decline in crops yields (IPCC, 1996; Murdiyarso, 2000; IPCC, 2001; Rosenzweig et al., 2002).

Despite impressive technological advancement in agriculture sector, the agriculture production to a larger extent is still dependent on weather and climate (Adetunji et al., 2005). Studies of potential vulnerability of crops to heat stress under a climate change scenario of 0.3â—¦Cper decade determine that all the selected crops suffered from heat stress. Crops like wheat, cotton and sugarcane were more vulnerable to heat stress as compared to other crops (GoP, 2003).

The study of climate change impact on agriculture has becoming a subject of increasing importance, (Lu et al., 2011). In most of the developing countries of the world the limited knowledge about climate change and its impact on agriculture, affecting the sustainable development (Kemausuor et al., 2011). Pakistan is long being considered as agrarian economy but its share in GDP is decreasing from 24% in 2009, to 21.8% in 2011 (Siddique et al., 2012). Pakistan agriculture will have to face an unprecedented challenge in the next century. Unfortunately climate change research in Pakistan is mainly concentrated on physical and biological indicators. Very little work is done on community/farmer’s perception of climate change. The present research is aimed at assessment of farmer’s perception and response to climate change in Balambat tehsil, district Dir Lower. The research attempts to investigate how changes in weather and climate are perceived by farmer’s communities, how the change in temperature and precipitation have affected the agriculture sector of the area and in turn the lives and livelihood of the local population. Last but not the least how farmers are coping with and adapting to climate change. The objectives of the study were:

• • To analyze how the climate change was comprehended by local farmers.
• • To assess how changes in temperature and precipitation have affected the agriculture, lives and subsistence of the local population.
• • To determine how farmers were dealing with and adapting to the changing pattern of temperature and precipitation.

Materials and Methods

Research design and instrument

The study is mainly based on primary sources of information. Extensive fieldwork was carried out for the collection of data through a semi-structured question naire. The questionnaire includes questions on different aspects of climate change and its impact on agriculture. The variables addressed in the questionnaire included crop calendar, crop yield, fruit tree flowering and crop diseases etc.

Universe and sampling

There are 173 villages in the Balambat tehsil. The study focused on 15 villages, selected through purposive sampling. Priority was given to those who were easily accessible and having agricultural land (Figure 1). Being focused on temporal variations of climate, age factor was considered for the selection of respondents. Elders aging above sixty years were given priority in order to have a deeper understanding. As this is a case study with a pre-defined focus, five respondents have been interviewed from each sampled village. A total of 75 questionnaires were filled which make the overall sample size which is 3% of total household of study area. In order to ensure a high degree of inter subjectivity, questionnaire survey was followed by focus group discussion, done in each village to determine the perception of the farmers on climate change, and to verify the results of questionnaire survey. Fifteen FGDs (Focus group discussions) were carried out, one in each selected village.

The major constraint of the study was the temporal scale associated with the research, the individual perception of climate change are vague and are sometime not related to climate change. In addition, human perception of climate is strongly influenced by expectations. The research is based on answer provided by farmers and not on climatic data. (Table 1)(Figure 1)

Results and Discussion

Change in crops calendar (Time of crops sowing and harvesting)

Fluctuations in temperature and precipitation result in the shifting of crop calendar. The majority of the respondents were of the opinion that the sowing and harvesting dates of crops have shifted and taking place earlier. Nevertheless there was some difference of opinion on the number of days by which the sowing and harvesting time has changed. Majority of the farmers surveyed reported a shift of about 10-14 days. Table 2 summarised the survey results. The change in crop calendar was attributed to the spatial and temporal variation in the pattern of rain and temperature. Some of the respondents stated that even the seeds which they were using in the past are no more effective in the changing climatic conditions.

Table 1: Name of sampled villages and there population characteristics 1998.

Table 2: Balambat Tehsil: Change in Sowing Time (Number of Days) of Different Crops (1992 to 2012).

Similarly the response regarding harvesting time of various crops also diverse, however majority of the respondents reported 7-15 days shift in the harvesting. The results are shown in Table 3.

According to Gregory et al. (1999) wheat and rice crops indicated reduction in yield per hectare as a consequence of climate change (warming).The experiments carried out in northern and central Italy demonstrated that under current crop management practices, the climate change would decrease crop yields by 10-40% mainly because the warmer air temperature. The experiments also suggested that 60-90% more irrigation water will be needed to maintain grain yield under climate change scenario (Tubiello et al., 2000). However in the study area, survey results suggest that yield per hectare increased. This increase in yield was attributed to the adaption of high yielding varieties (HYV)of crops, introduction of improved irrigation facilities, mechanization of agriculture and increasing use of chemical fertilizers. (Table 4).

Pests and diseases

One of the possible consequences of gl obal warming and climate change is the effect on the distribution of pests and microorganisms. The scientists have sufficient evidence for the effect of climate change on many biological systems (Woods et al., 2005; Elphinstone and Toth, 2008). Studies indicate that pests and crop diseases will likely to increase under climate change, leading to greater risk of crop failure and crop loss (Rosenzweig and Hillel, 1998; Patterson et al., 1999; Gutierrez, 2000).

Table 3: Balambat Tehsil: Change in harvesting time (number of days) of different crops (1992 to 2012).

Table 4: Balambat Tehsil: Annual increase in crops production kg. per hectares (1992- 2012).

The present study records a vague response regarding impact of climate change on crop diseases and pests therefore, the results are inconclusive. This wispy response may be due to the fact that agriculture in the study area has significantly changes during last 20 years, not only because of global warming /climate change but also because of increasing mechanization of agriculture. Hence it seem difficult for respondents to link crop diseases and incidence of pests to any causative factors. However majority of farmers were of the opinion that warmer climate is favourable for pests and crop diseases. Rust was reported as the most prevailing disease of the study area. Survey results are summarised in Figure 2.

Change in crop selection

Crop selection is often considered as a possible adaptation strategy to climate change, which is based on several factors, i.e. inputs such as labour, seed availability, fertilizers, market prices, government policies and a number of social and environmental factors such as climate, soil condition and irrigation water availability etc. (Kurukulasuriya and Mendelsohn, 2006).

The present research reveals that almost no change has occurred in the selection of crops varieties. However, the availability of high yielding seed varieties and chemical fertilizers has transformed the local agricultural practice to some extent. Previously farmers used to practice subsistence farming to ensure self-sufficiency, but today there is less crop diversity. Farmers mostly grow one or two crops like wheat, onion and rice etc. and rely on the market for vegetables.

Change in water availability for agriculture

According to the respondents, rainfall used to be the major source of irrigation in the past; however, currently other sources of irrigation such as canal and tube wells have also been introduced. According to survey results, 60% respondent practice canal irrigation while 22% rely on tube well for irrigation as compared to 44% and 4% respectively twenty years before (Table 5).

Change in the time of fruit trees flowering

Climate change research reveals that increasing temperature and changing pattern of precipitation are having noticeable effects on species and ecosystem (Parmesan and Yohe, 2003; Root et al., 2003; Parmesan, 2007). For instance, the geographical distribution of many plants and animal species are shifting toward higher altitudes (Grabherr et al., 1994). Climate change is affecting the timing of plant flowering (Sparks and Carey, 1995; Defila and Clot, 2001; Fitter and Fitter, 2002; Miller and Primack, 2008; Primack et al., 2009).

Table 5: Change in water availability for agriculture (1992 to 2012).

Table 6: Average change in the time of fruit trees flowering (1992 to 2012).

In response to the change in timing of the flowering of fruit trees the respondents unanimously agreed that change has occurred in the time of fruit tree blossoming. They believe that this is because of onsets of early summers and shortening of winter season. However different fruit trees respond differently to the changing climate i.e. some fruit trees like loquat and oranges blossom very early but very little change took place in plums blossoming. Survey results are shown in Table 6.

Livestock

Heat stress caused by global warming can affect animal production by decreasing feed consumption, milk production and reproduction (West, 2003). Though most of the respondents reported no significant change in livestock health, an overwhelming majority of respondents (93%) believe that the number of livestock’s/household has reduced significantly. Similarly respondent pointed out a change in the source of feed for livestock. Majority of the farmers now relay on market for fodder, since natural fodders and grasses on pastures has been reduced as a results of increasing temperature and decreasing /changing rainfall pattern.

Natural hazards

The apparent increase in weather related disasters such as flash flood, river flood and drought etc. are often attributed to global warming and climate change. The respondents were asked about their perception regarding the occurrence of natural hazards. Majority of the respondent agreed that the frequency of flash floods hasdecreased; they attributed this to the decrease in the amount of rainfall in last 20 years. Besides the respondents also believe that there is not only decrease in the amount of rainfall but the timing of rainfall is also changed. The analysis of climate data obtained from regional meteorological office Peshawar for a period of 21 years (1990-2009) reveals that the average monsoon rain (July-Sep) during 1990 to 1999 was 369.87mm which decrease to 280.26 during 2000-2009. According to IUCN (2008) in Shigar and Bagrote valleys of Gilgit Batistanthe amount of precipitation has reduced drastically in last 10 years. In Shigar and Bagrote valleys the incidents of flash flood increase though because of rapid melting of snow and glaciers.

According to Ahmad et al. (2003) there is generally a decrease or no change in temperature is observed in monsoon region of Pakistan. However there is an increase in extreme temperature in arid region comprising of plain areas, dry mountains and coastal areas. Increase in extreme annual rainfall is observed in the humid, sub humid and semi-arid regions, whereas a decline trend is noticed in cool humid/sub humid, dry mountains and coastal areas of Pakistan. When the question was asked about the trend of flash floods, respondents unanimously agreed that the number of flash floods decreased from last 20 years. The study area Balambat Tehsil is part of dry mountainous region of Pakistan where no big glaciers exist therefore it is understandable that the incidents of flash floods might be decreased. However when the question was asked about the occurrence of river flood, majority of the respondents believe that the incidents of riverine flood has increased. Most of the sampled villages are located on bank of Punjkora river which take its origin from upper Dir, during its journey a number of streams join it. The melting of snow combined with summer rainfall often cause flood in the river. Table 7 summarize the survey results.

Table 7: Change in the Frequency of the Flash flood and River flood Disasters (1992 to 2012).

Adetunji, L.A., J.O. Olaniyi, E.O. Aremy and E.O. Kolawala. 2005. Agro-Climatology: A text book of agronomy. Department of Agronomy, Ladoke Akintola University of Technology, Ogbomosho, Nigeria.

Ahmad, S., A. Bari and A. Muhammad. 2003. Climate change and water resources of Pakistan: Impact vulnerabilities, cropping mechanisms: In Proceedings of the year end workshop on Climate Change and Water Resources in South Asia. January 7-9, 2003. Kathmandu, Nepal.

Defila, C. and B. Clot. 2001. Phytophenological trends in Switzerland. Int. J. Biometeorol. 45: 203–207. https://doi.org/10.1007/s004840100101

Elphinstone, J.and I.K. Toth, 2008. Erwinia chrysanthemi (Dikeya spp.)-the facts. Potato Council, Oxford, U.K.

Fitter, A.H. and R.S. Fitter. 2002. Rapid changes in flowering time in British plants. Science. 296: 1689–1691. https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1071617

Government of Pakistan. 2003. Pakistan’s Initial national communication on climate change. Ministry of Environment Islamabad, Pakistan.

Grabherr, G., M. Gottfried and H. Pauli. 1994. Climate effects on mountain plants. Nature. 369-448. https://doi.org/10.1038/369448a0

Gregory, P., J. Ingram, B. Campbell, J. Goudriaan, T. Hunt, J. Landsberg, S. Linder, M. Stafford-Smith, R. Sutherst and C. Valentin. 1999. Managed production systems. In The terrestrial biosphere and global change: implications for natural and managed systems, pp. 229–270. In: Walker, B., W. Steffen, J. Canadell and J. S. I. Ingram, (eds), Cambridge University Press. UK.

Gutierrez, A.P. 2000. Climate change: Effects on pest dynamics. In: K.R. Reddy and H.F. Hodges (eds). Climate change and global crop productivity. CABI, New York. https://doi.org/10.1079/9780851994390.0353

Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). 1996. Impacts, Adaptations, and mitigation of climate change: Scientific-technical analyses - Contribution of working group II to the IPCC Second assessment report. Cambridge University Press, U.K.

Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). 2001. Climate Change: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability, A report of working group II of the IPCC. In: M. Manning and C. Nobre (eds).Cambridge University Press, U.K.

International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN). 2008. Community perceptions on climate change in Shiger Valley, Pakistan, A Case study. Pakistan country Office, Karachi.

Kemausuor, F., E. Dwamena, A.B. Plange and N.K. Baffour. 2011. Farmers’ perception of climate change in the Ejura-Sekyedumase District of Ghana. J. Agric. Bio. Sci. 6(10): 26-37.

Kurukulasuriya, P. and R. Mendelsohn. 2006. Crop selection: adapting to climate change in Africa. CEEPA Discussion Paper No. 26, Centre for environmental economics and policy in Africa (CEEPA), University of Pretoria, South Africa.

Lu, E., W. Higgins, K. Morton, and M. Halpert. 2011. A method for identifying the events that can best become extremes. Paper presented at the NOAA Climate diagnostics and prediction, Camp Springs, USA. (http://www.nws.noaa.gov/ost/climate/STIP/index.htm)

Miller-Rushing, A.J. and R.B. Primack. 2008. Global warming and flowering times in Thoreau’s Concord: a community perspective. Eco. 89: 332–341. https://doi.org/10.1890/07-0068.1

Murdiyarso, D. 2000. Adaptation to climatic variability and change: Asian perspectives on agriculture and food security. Environ. Moni. Asses. 61(1): 123-131. https://doi.org/10.1023/A:1006326404156

Parmesan, C. 2007. Influences of species, latitudes and methodologies on estimates of phenological response to global warming. Glob. Change Biol. 13(9):1860–1872. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1365-2486.2007.01404.x

Parmesan, C. and G. Yohe. 2003. A globally coherent fingerprint of climate change impacts across natural systems. Nature. 421: 37–42. https://doi.org/10.1038/nature01286

Patterson, D.T., J.K. Westbrook, R.J.V. Joyce, P.D. Lingren and J. Rogasik. 1999. Weeds insects and disease. Clim. Change. 43:711 – 27. https://doi.org/10.1023/A:1005549400875

Primack, R.B., H. Hiroyoshi, J. Abraham and R. Miller. 2009. The impact of climate change on cherry trees and other species in Japan. Biol. Cons. 142: 1943–1949. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.biocon.2009.03.016

Root, T.L., J.T. Price, K.R. Hall, S.H. Schneider, C. Rosenzweig and J.A. Pounds. 2003. Fingerprints of global warming on wild animals and plants. Nature. 421: 57-60. https://doi.org/10.1038/nature01333

Rosenzweig, C. and D. Hillel. 1998. Climate Change and the Global Harvest. New York: Oxford University Press.

Rosenzweig, C., F.N. Tubiello, R. Goldberg, E. Mills and J. Bloomfield. 2002. Increased crop damage in the U.S. from excess precipitation under climate change. Global environmental change: Hum. Dimens. Policy. 12(3): 197-202. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0959-3780(02)00008-0

Siddique, A.A., and Z. Mirani. 2012. Farmer’s perception of agriculture extension regarding diffusion of agriculture technology. Pak. J. Agric. Eng. Vet. Sci. 1(28): 79-92.

Sparks, T.H. and P.D. Carey. 1995. The responses of species to climate change over two centuries: an analysis of the Marshamphenological record, 1736–1947. J. Econ. 83: 321–329.

Tubiello, F.N., M. Donatelli, C. Rosenzweig and C.O. Stockle. 2000. Effects of climate change and elevated O2 on cropping systems: model predictions at two Italian locations. Eur. J. Agron. 13:179-189. https://doi.org/10.1016/S1161-0301(00)00073-3

West, J.W. 2003. Effects of heat stress on production in dairy cattle. J. Dairy Sci. 86:2131- 2144. https://doi.org/10.3168/jds.S0022-0302(03)73803-X

Woods, A., K.D. Coates and A. Hamann. 2005. Is an unprecedented Dothistroma needle blight epidemic related to climate change? Bioscience 55:61-69.