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Trends and Determinants of Fertility in Pakistan: Multivariate Decomposition Analysis (PDHS 1990-91 to PDHS 2012-13)

Asifa Kamal1*, Ghazala Noreen1 and Muhammad Amin2

1Lahore College for Women University Lahore, Pakistan; 2Nuclear Institute for Food and Agriculture (NIFA), Peshawar, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, Pakistan.

*Correspondence | Asifa Kamal, Lahore College for Women University Lahore, Pakistan; Email:,


Pakistan is facing problem of rapid population growth. Objective of current study is to identify the demographic, economic and attitudinal factors affecting fertility in Pakistan for the three waves of cross sectional Pakistan Demographic and Health Surveys (PSHS 1990-91, PDHS 2006-07 and PDHS 2012-13). Multivariate decomposition analysis and pooled cross section techniques are used to analyse the data. It is concluded from multivariate pooled analysis of three surveys that age of women at first birth, region (Balochistan), wealth index (rich), education of both spouses and survey periods (2006-07, 2012-13) has significantly negative effect on the total children ever born to women in Pakistan. Child mortality (yes), husband’s desire for children (more than wife), ideal number of children, marital duration and ever use of contraceptives has significant positive contribution towards women fertility in terms of number of children ever born to women. A significant decline in fertility is observed for the two periods (PDHS 2006-07 and PDHS 2012-13) as compared to PDHS (1990-91). There is 10% and 15% decline in fertility in 2006-07 and 2012-13 respectively as compared to 1990-91.


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Pakistan Journal of Zoology


Vol. 53, Iss. 3, Pages 801-1200


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