Abdul Baset1, Qun Liu1,*, Muhammad Tariq Hanif1, 2, Baochao Liao1, Aamir Mahmood Memon1,3 and Muhammad Mohsin1

Usman Shakoor1*, Mudassar Rashid1, Abdul Saboor2, Nabila Khurshid1, Zuhair Husnain2 and Abdul Rehman2

Dilshad Ahmad*, Muhammad Irfan Chani and Asad Afzal Humayon

...Sixty-seven years annual time series data from 1947-48 to 2013-14 was obtained to forecast major crops and per capita food availability for 21years from 2014-15 to 2034-2035. Findings of the study pointed out increasing trends; major crops area, production, and yield except the sugarcane crop as mentioned decreasing trend in sugarcane yield. Decreasing of sugarcane yield in forecasted period is reported to lack of potential use of resources in sugarcane crop. ...

Akerele Dare*, Ashaolu Olumuyiwa Fowowe, Sanusi Rahman Akintayo and Egbetade Adedolapo 

...bjected to econometrics (time series) analysis. Results established positive and statistically significant influence of the amount of fund apportioned to crop (p<0.01) and livestock (p<0.05) subsectors on output growth in the respective subsectors. Likewise, the amount of the fund allocated to fishery subsector on fish output has positive influence on fish output but significant only at 10% level. While increases in the amount of the fund in a given year...

 Farhan Ahmed, Hassnain Shah, Irum Raza* and Abdul Saboor**

...uction in Pakistan using time series data from 1990 to 2010. ARIMA (p, d, q) model is considered for estimation where ‘p’ is the order of the autoregressive process; ‘d’ is the order of the homegeneity and ‘q’ the order of the moving average process. Presence of trend in data was checked through time series plots and stationarity through auto correlation and partial auto correlation functi...
Saleem Abid1*, Nasir Jamal2, Muhammad Zubair Anwar3 and Saleem Zahid4 

 Saima Rani*, Hassnain Shah*, Umar Farooq** and Bushra Rehman**

SUPPLY, DEMAND, AND POLICY ENVIRONMENT FOR PULSES IN PAKISTAN
...onal level, based on the time series data from 1974-75 to 2010-11. Acreage response results revealed that farm harvest prices, lagged area and good moisture availability at sowing time positively influence the area allocation decision of the farmers. But yield for mung and fertilizers price for both pulses were insignificant factors in influencing the farmers' decision to allocate land. Production of pluses mainly depends on area under the crop. Pulses area un...

 Sajid Ali*, Quratulain Altaf** and Umar Farooq* 

ACREAGE RESPONSE OF FLUE CURED VIRGINIA TOBACCO IN KHYBER PAKHTUNKHWA
... used in the study cover time series data for 1971-2011. The newly developed Auto Regressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model for cointegration was used to estimate the short-run and long-run elasticities. The study found a long-run price elasticity of 0.33, thereby revealing that FCV acreage response to its own price is relatively inelastic. The short-run acreage response was also low (0.13) and therefore relatively inelastic. This implies that price policy could...

 Anum Fatima*, Saleem Abid* and Sobia Naheed* 

TRENDS IN WHOLESALE PRICES OF ONION AND POTATO IN MAJOR MARKETS OF PAKISTAN: A TIME SERIES ANALYSIS

 Sobia Naheed*, Irum Raza*, M. Zubair Anwar*, Nusrat Habib*, Naheed Zahra* and Sabeen Siddiqui*

FORECASTING AREA AND PRODUCTION OF BARLEY IN PUNJAB, PAKISTAN
...ction in Punjab based on time series data from 1976 to 2011. Four models namely quadratic trend, linear trend, exponential growth curve and double exponential smoothing were compared and the best fitting model was chosen by reason of three accuracy measures namely mean absolute deviation (MAD), mean absolute percentage error (MAPE), and mean squared deviation (MSD). The values of these

measures were lowest for the double exponential smoothing ...

 Naheed Zahra*, Nadeem Akmal*, Sobia Naheed*, Nusrat Habib*, Sabeen Siddiqui* and Irum Raza*

TREND ANALYSIS OF RICE AREA AND YIELD IN PUNJAB
...e estimation is based on time series data from 1980 to 2011. On the basis of minimum errors of accuracy measure quadratic model was selected. The estimated results revealed that there is an increasing trend in the area and yield of rice in Punjab. The area of rice was 276800 ha in 2012 and would be 2934280 ha in 2016. Likewise results about yield indicated that it was -1 -1 2438kg ha in 2012 and would be 2678kg ha in 2016. This increasing trend will provide a ...

 Saleem Abid*, Anum Fatima*, Sobia Naheed*, Asrar Sarwar** and Muhammad Nisar Khan*

DOUBLE EXPONENTIAL FORECASTING MODEL FOR DATES PRODUCTION IN PAKISTAN
...ion in Pakistan by using time series data from 1980- 81 to 2012-13 (32 years).Three accuracy measures were used for the selection of best fitted model. These accuracy measures are mean absolute percentage error (MAPE), mean absolute deviation (MAD) and mean squared deviation (MSD). Double exponential trend was located to be best fitted model among other five models (linear trend, quadratic trend , exponential growth , s-curve and moving average) for estimating...

Usman Shakoor1, Ali Nasir2, Mudassar Rashid1, Muhammad Iftikhar-ul-Husnain1, Nabila Khurshid1 and Zuhair Husnain

...ween the variables using time series data for last 23 years. It was empirically evaluated that increase in agriculture taxes led to a decrease in agriculture share of GDP. 1% increase in in the level of agricultural income tax decreased share of GDP by 0.073%. Whereas increase in land tax revenue had a significant positive effect on the agriculture share of GDP. Exempting agriculture income tax would give respite to agriculture community as done in china, wher...

Dilshad Ahmad1*, Muhammad Irfan Chani1 and Muhammad Afzal2 

...iables, obtaining annual time series data from 1973 to 2014. An empirical estimation of ARDL approach has indicated the evidence of long-run cointegration of model. Empirical findings of the study indicate positive (5.178151) and significant relationship between agriculture credit and agricultural output. Labor participating in agriculture has positive (14.98381) yet insignificant relation to agricultural output while trade openness has negative (-39.64926) an...

Tanweer Ahmed*, Kashif Saeed Khan and Mohammad Naeem 

...orce. The study utilized time series data for the period 1972 to 2014. The stationarity of time series data has checked through Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF) test. Johansen Co-integration test and Error Correction Model (ECM) have employed for the long run and short run empirical estimation. The Co-integration test results show the presence of a long run relationship among the variables. The coefficient of the ECM term (-.53...

Muhammad Shahid1*, Mehmood Shah2, Adiqa Kiani3 and Farhat Parveen4 

...r productivity by taking time series data from 1984 to 2017 and Auto Regressive Distributive lag model (ARDL) has been applied to conclude the results. The other econometric test CUSUM and CUSUM sum of square were conducted to check the stability of the model. The results of the study reveal statistically significant positive impact of livestock and on labour productivity while the role of Govt. fixed capital and inflation are insignificant. This comprehensive...

Umar Hayat1, Khalid Khan2, Saima Liaqat3* and Balach Rasheed

Khalid Khan1*, Hazrat Yousaf1, Noor Mohammad1, Munir Khan1 and Do Thi Thao2
...ina. It investigates the time series data from 1995 to 2018 by employing Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) technique. Empirical results indicate that money supply has a significant and positive impact on food prices, as food prices are unswervingly linked to food security, real disposable income of households’and food production. The results of the study also revealed that the implication of monetary policy will be a significant instrument to influen...
Faheem Aslam1*, Aneel Salman1 and Inayatullah Jan2
...ng algorithms to improve time series prediction accuracy. The purpose of this study is to develop a precise wheat production model using artificial neural networks (ANN). A total of 71 years’ wheat production data from 1948 to 2018 is divided into training data and test data. The model is trained by using 53 years’ data and forecasts the future wheat production for the remaining 14 years. There are 16 indicators used as input variables for wheat pr...
Rakhshanda Kousar1, Tahira Sadaf1*, Muhammad Sohail Amjad Makhdum2, Muhammad Amjed Iqbal1 and Raza Ullah1
...Index. For this purpose, time series data has been collected for the period 2001-2018 from Food and Agricultural Organization Statistics, International Trade Centre map, and World Banks’ World Integrated Trade Solutions, Trade Development Authorities of Pakistan, and Pakistan’s Economic Surveys. It was found that Pakistan comparative advantage in production of all three fruits as values of the Revealed Comparative Advantage were greater than one an...

Muhammad Azam Niazi1* and Umar Farooq2 

...stationary while most of time series are in fact trended. This makes the results of many earlier studies unreliable. This study uses the modern time series approach of cointegration using Autoregressive Distributed Lag bounds testing. The bounds testing showed existence of a long run relationship between Basmati rice production and the regressors used in the study. The Basmati rice production showed a positive association wi...

Sarhad Journal of Agriculture

September

Vol. 35, Iss. 3, Pages 663-1019

Featuring

Click here for more

Subscribe Today

Receive free updates on new articles, opportunities and benefits


Subscribe Unsubscribe