Time Series Analysis of Child Mortality in Pakistan: An Application of Bootstrap ARDL
Umar Hayat1*, Ibrar Hussin2, Aftab Alam3 and Khalid Khan4
ABSTRACT
Contemporary development theories realize the importance of social indicators such as education and health status of masses along with per capita income. This study aims to empirically test the hypotheses of Modernization Theory (MT) and the Social-Democratic Theory (SDT) related to child mortality in Pakistan. The study adopts the framework of Ferreira and Schady (2009) and Baird et al. (2011) to carry out empirical estimation via ARDL and Bootstrap ARDL. Confirming the co integration relationship, the study identifies that real GDP per capita is a significant variable responsible for decline in child mortality thereby confirms the hypothesis of MT. The study however, does not find statistical evidence in favor of the hypothesis of SDT due to meager allocation to health sector in case of Pakistan. Allocation of sufficient fund to health sector specifically targeting maternal and child health is expected to reduce child mortality in a rapid speed in the country.
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