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The Effect of Climate Change on the Population Fluctuation of Overwintering Red-Crowned Crane in Yancheng Nature Reserve, China

The Effect of Climate Change on the Population Fluctuation of Overwintering Red-Crowned Crane in Yancheng Nature Reserve, China

Peng Xu1, Bin Liu1,2, Yongqiang Zhao3, Shicheng Lv3 and Changhu Lu1,*

1College of Biology and Environmental Science, Nanjing Forestry University, Nanjing 210037, Jiangsu, China
2Dafeng Père David’s Deer National Nature Reserve, Yancheng 224136, China
3Jiangsu Yancheng Wetland National Nature Reserve, Rare Birds, Yancheng 224333, China

*      Corresponding author: luchanghu@njfu.com.cn

 

Fig. 1.

Annual fluctuation of the mean air temperature and precipitation in the YNR during the wintering period of red-crowned crane from 1981 to 2016.

Fig. 2.

The change trends of the maximum wintering number of red-crowned crane inside YNR from 1981 to 2016.

Fig. 3.

Estimated changes in population sizes of the red-crowned crane under the effect of 3 climate variables, which was significant, from 1981 to 2016 in YNR using GAMs.

Fig. 4.

The significant correlation between the maximum number of red-crowned crane in the YNR and 5 climate variables within 10 years. F1, mean minimum air temperature in December 2 years earlier; F2, mean minimum air temperature in January of the following year 4 years earlier; F3, mean minimum air temperature in January of the following year 6 years earlier; F4, mean air temperature in January of the following year 6 years earlier; F5, precipitation in January of the following year 7 years earlier.

Fig. 5.

All subsets regression analysis to determine the best combination of climate factors. F1-F5 had been illustrated in Figure 4. F6, mean maximum air temperature in November; F7, mean minimum air temperature in December; F8, mean air temperature in December.

Pakistan Journal of Zoology

December

Vol. 50, Iss. 6, Pages 1999-2398

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