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Maize Production Response to Climate Change in Pakistan: A Time Series Assessment

Maize Production Response to Climate Change in Pakistan: A Time Series Assessment

Usman Shakoor1*, Mudassar Rashid1, Abdul Saboor2, Nabila Khurshid1, Zuhair Husnain2 and Abdul Rehman2

1Department of Economics, COMSATS Institute of Information Technology, Islamabad, Pakistan; 2Pir Mehar Ali Shah Arid Agriculture University, Rawalpindi, Pakistan.

economistusman@gmail.com

ABSTRACT

Increment in atmospheric CO2, variations in temperature and precipitation are helping tools to forecast scenarios for the climate in an area. Changes in these tools from the past due to any unavoidable circumstances for today and in the future is refers to climate change (CC). Besides other living being, crops are either benefited or adversely affected by these changes in the climate of an area. Maize is one of the widely grown crops in the world and even in Pakistan has also influenced in either way. Current study employed vector auto regression models (VAR) along with times series data from 1980 to 2013 for Pakistan to estimate the potential effects of climate change on Maize production. Result professed that average temperature will affect Maize crop negatively bringing about 6% reduction in maize production till the year 2030. Average minimum temperature brought about 9% increases in maize production till 2021. Increase in overall rainfall will also benefits Maize crop production. Maize production will increase by 2% by the year 2030 from the base year i.e. 1980. Water availability in the crop growth periods and fertilizer application (today or in the future) will certainly increase production. This scenario demands devising adaptation strategies for farmers to be made available, this should be the key policy intervention of the government to cater with the climate change on agriculture and particularly on maize. Fertilizer management and crop variety choices according to the changing climate will address this serious concern expected in the future.

 

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Sarhad Journal of Agriculture (Associated Journal)

June

Vol. 33, Iss. 2, Pages 189-337

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