INTERDECADAL GROWTH VARIABILITY AND DECOMPOSITION ANALYSIS OF FRUIT CROPS IN PUNJAB, PAKISTAN
Mubbashira Nazir*, Saira Batool*, Sultan Ali Tariq**, Abid Hussain** and Ya Sakina**
Horticulture has a well realized role in providing essential major and micro nutrients in the diets of people in Pakistan. The study examines the trends and variation of area, production and yield of fruit crops in Punjab province from 1971 to 2014. The growth trend of fruits' production in the province showed positive behavior for major fruits (citrus, mango and guava) in almost all the decades, except for mango in 1970s and guava in 2000s. The decline in production of mango in 1970s was due to negative growth in both area and yield. While, a slowdown growth in the area and decrease in yield were reasons of decline in production of guava in 2000s. Growth in production of minor fruits showed a cyclical trend i.e., increased and decreased in alternate decades. Results of Cuddy-Della Valle Index showed that variations in production of major fruits decreased over time (from 1970s to 1990s); however, variability in their production escalated and reached to the highest levels for citrus and mango again in 2000s. While, variations in guava production were the highest in 1970s followed by 1980s. On the basis of growth rate data these can be attributed to expansion in area to a great extent and partially to productivity improvement. Variations in production of minor fruits increased overtime (from 1970s to 1990s) and then declined in 2000s. During the study period, fruit production varied due to area, though productivity altered considerably. The results of decomposition analysis indicated a relatively stronger stimulus of area expansion in production of citrus. While yield affect remained dominant in production of mango, guava and minor fruits across decades as well as during the study period. Chances of expansion in area of fruit crops are limited due to constraint of availability of agricultural land. Thus, to keep healthy growth in fruits' production, improvements in yield levels of fruits crop are required.