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Forecasting Area and Production of Guava in Pakistan: An Econometric Analysis

Forecasting Area and Production of Guava in Pakistan: An Econometric Analysis

Dilawar Khan1*, Arif Ullah2, Zainab Bibi1, Ihsan Ullah1, Muhammad Zulfiqar4 and Zafir Ullah Khan

1Department of Economics, Kohat University of Science and Technology, Kohat 26000, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, Pakistan; 2Department of Economics, Preston University Kohat Campus, Kohat 26000, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, Pakistan; 3Department of Economics, University of Science and Technology, Bannu 28100, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, Pakistan; 4Institute of Development Studies, The University of Agriculture, Peshawar, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, Pakistan.

dilawar@kust.edu.pk  

ABSTRACT

This paper forecasts guava area and production in Pakistan using time series data over the period 1997-98 to 2014-15. The study used the Box Jenkins approach and forecast was made up to the period 2029-30. The order of ARIMA model was identified using autocorrelation function (ACF) and partial autocorrelation function (PACF). Suitable model for area and production of guava are ARIMA (0,0,0) and ARIMA (1,1,0) respectively. The projected area of guava for the forecasted period is 61.37 thousand hectares each year. Area of guava shows a static trend throughout the forecasted period. The forecasted production of guava is 502.14 thousand tonnes in the year 2029-30. Guava production can be increased using improved guava cultivars, improved system of irrigation and adequate cultural practices. Strategy should be adopted to bring more barren land under guava cultivation. This would help to increase guava production in future. 

 

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Sarhad Journal of Agriculture

June

Vol. 36, Iss. 2, Pages 374-733

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