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DOUBLE EXPONENTIAL FORECASTING MODEL FOR DATES PRODUCTION IN PAKISTAN

 Saleem Abid*, Anum Fatima*, Sobia Naheed*, Asrar Sarwar** and Muhammad Nisar Khan*

 * Social Sciences Research Institute, National Agricultural Research Centre, Islamabad, Pakistan.
**World Vegetable Center, Pakistan
.Corresponding author: sobianarc@gmail.com

ABSTRACT

 This study was carried out to examine prospect trends of dates area and production in Pakistan by using time series data from 1980- 81 to 2012-13 (32 years).Three accuracy measures were used for the selection of best fitted model. These accuracy measures are mean absolute percentage error (MAPE), mean absolute deviation (MAD) and mean squared deviation (MSD). Double exponential trend was located to be best fitted model among other five models (linear trend, quadratic trend , exponential growth , s-curve and moving average) for estimating predicted values of area and production of dates for upcoming seven years. The estimated values of area and production represent increasing trend were 2.2, 93.8, 95.5, 97.2, 98.0, 100.6 and 102.3 '000' hectares and 548.5, 556.0, 563.5, 571.0, 578.5, 585.9 and 593.4 '000' tonnes from 2013-14 to 2019-20, respectively .

 

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Pakistan Journal of Agricultural Research

March

Vol. 33, Iss. 1, Pages 1-191

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